To evaluate potential threats to sensitive communities, habitat connectivity, and groundwater in the Cuyama Valley four scenarios were developed to illustrate possible changes to the region that may occur by the year 2050. The scenarios are entitled: Ghost Town, Wine Country, Satellite City, and Nature Preserve.  These scenarios are designed to compare possible trends in the economic development of the region, along with shifts in patterns of residential development, demographics, land use, and water availability.  Scenarios were designed to represent end points of thematic change to the region to evaluate the full range of possible impacts to conservation interests.  The three point diagrams illustrate the fundamental differences of each scenario along three axes of comparison, extent of agriculture, magnitude of human development, and level of dedicated conservation activity.

• groundwater pumping and treatment costs are so high that agriculture ceases and with no replacement industry, the valley is effectively deserted

• the valley becomes a vibrant weekend destination providing boutique lodging, fine dining, and locally crafted wines

• an increased demand for housing from Santa Maria spurs the growth of Cuyama and New Cuyama and groundwater is entirely diverted from agriculture to support this growth

• conservation entities invest in the valley creating a fully protected link between the Carrizo Plain National Monument and Los Padres National Forest