ESM 201

Assignment 2

The purpose of this exercise is to give you a closer look at research to predict the effects of global climate change on the distribution of species and ecosystems. Choose a relatively current research paper and study it to prepare a 1-2 page summary of the research that considers the following questions:

1) What is the motivation for the research?

2) What species and region are being investigated, and why?

3) In a nutshell, what methodological approach is used to predict the future distribution of the species or ecosystems?

4) What is the basis for predicting patterns of future climate(s)?

5) What are the key research findings?

6) What is the relevance of these findings in terms of environmental policy and/or management?

7) What are the major limitations of the study, and what improvements might you make if you were to continue this line of research?

You can select a paper from the set below or you are welcome to search for a different study. An easy way to conduct such a search is using the Web of Science  

 Come to your discussion section prepared to discuss your findings.

Some Candidate Papers

Kearney M, Porter WP. Mapping the fundamental niche: Physiology, climate, and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard
ECOLOGY 85 (11): 3119-3131 NOV 2004

Iverson LR, Schwartz MW, Prasad AM
Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 19 (7): 787-799 2004

Hannah L, Midgley G, Hughes G, et al.
The view from the cape. Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change 
BIOSCIENCE 55 (3): 231-242 MAR 2005

Humphries, M. M., D. W. Thomas, and J. R. Speakman. 2002, Climate-mediated energetic constraints on the distribution of hibernating mammals: Nature. 418 313–316.

Skov F, Svenning JC
Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe
ECOGRAPHY 27 (3): 366-380 JUN 2004

Dole KP, Loik ME, Sloan LC
The relative importance of climate change and the physiological effects of CO2 on freezing tolerance for the future distribution of Yucca brevifolia
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 36 (1-2): 137-146 MAR 2003

Hill JK, Thomas CD, Fox R, et al.
Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 269 (1505): 2163-2171 OCT 22 2002

 Enquist CAF
Predicted regional impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and diversity of tropical forests in Costa Rica
JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 29 (4): 519-534 APR 2002

Collatz GJ, Berry JA, Clark JS
Effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 partial pressure on the global distribution of C-4 grasses: present, past, and future 
OECOLOGIA 114 (4): 441-454 MAY 1998

Kueppers LM, Snyder MA, Sloan LC, et al.
Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges 
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 102 (45): 16281-16286 NOV 8 2005